Just eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.