Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.