Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
